The conflict in Ukraine, initiated by Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, continues unabated.
In eastern Ukraine, Russia maintains a relentless and bloody advance. The country endures nightly deadly aerial strikes, while Russian refineries and energy facilities are frequently targeted by Kyiv’s drones.
Amidst this turmoil, the Kremlin has confirmed a forthcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. “I’m here to get [the war] over with,” said the US leader on Wednesday.
Three rounds of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, prompted by Trump from May to July, have not brought the parties closer to peace. Trump hopes direct involvement might lead to a ceasefire.
However, the deep divide between Kyiv and Moscow is so vast that even talks mediated by Trump may struggle to close it.
In a memorandum presented by Russia to Ukraine in June, Moscow outlined its sweeping demands for a “final settlement.” These demands include Ukrainian recognition of Russian control over Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, along with demilitarization, neutrality, exclusion of foreign military involvement, and new elections in Ukraine.
“The Russian side can frame this in a dozen different ways, creating the impression that Moscow is open to concessions and serious negotiation,” said Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya. “But the core position remains unchanged: Russia wants Kyiv to surrender.”
Following a meeting between Putin and US envoy Steve Witkoff, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington had better insight into the conditions under which Russia would consider ending the war.
Whether these conditions have altered is unknown. However, just last week, Putin—likely referring to the memorandum—stated that Russia had made its aims known in June, and these aims had not changed.
Thus, despite the Kremlin’s agreement to a Trump-Putin meeting, there is no indication that Moscow is ready to compromise on its tough preconditions.
Why would Putin engage in talks now?
One possibility is that Moscow hopes that engaging in dialogue could deter the secondary sanctions that Trump has threatened to impose on Russia’s trading partners as early as Friday. The Kremlin might also believe it could persuade Trump of the benefits of its conditions for ending the war.
At the start of his second term, Trump seemed more aligned with Russia than Ukraine, calling Zelensky a “dictator” and attributing blame for the war to him.
Although Trump has indicated frustration with Putin—”he’s just tapping me along,” he remarked in April—he has not acknowledged if he believes the Russian leader has misled him about willingness to pursue a ceasefire.
Whether due to personal rapport or a shared outlook, Trump has been reluctant to outright condemn Putin for his actions.
Their meeting in Helsinki in 2018 left many surprised as Trump appeared to side with the Kremlin over allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 US election and took responsibility for the strained US-Russia relations.
Possibly to thwart the chance of Trump being swayed by Putin, Kyiv wants involvement in any ceasefire negotiations.
Trump, via his envoy Steve Witkoff, suggested a trilateral with Putin and Zelensky. However, the Russian president dismissed this, stating conditions for a meeting were not yet met.
Now, some in Ukraine worry that a Trump-Putin meeting might lead to the US president yielding to Putin’s demands.
Ukrainian MP Iryna Herashchenko voiced concerns over potential territorial demands placed on Ukraine and emphasized the risks of being absent from negotiation discussions.
“Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and expects the same bold approach from the Russian side,” Zelensky declared Thursday.
Yet, the rift between Russia and Ukraine persists.
Even if the Kremlin eventually agrees to a trilateral meeting, Moscow’s uncompromising ceasefire demands raise doubts about the potential outcomes of direct talks between Zelensky and Putin.