No agreement was reached in Alaska. This outcome, without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, was the most probable, and maybe the most favorable. However, US President Donald Trump’s move away from the need for an immediate ceasefire, which he had previously expressed, will likely cause significant disappointment in Kyiv and across Europe.
Russia has maintained that a ceasefire can only occur as part of a broader settlement considering Russia’s interests, implicitly signaling Ukraine’s surrender. This is the stance that Trump seems to have supported once more.
On Truth Social, Trump articulated that everyone agreed the best way to end the intense conflict between Russia and Ukraine was directly reaching a peace agreement, noting that ceasefires often do not last.
This contradicts Ukraine’s main demand, backed by all its European supporters, that an unconditional ceasefire should come first. Importantly, it also gives Russia’s Vladimir Putin more time on the battlefield, where he believes he is prevailing.
“If Putin’s military aim was to avoid immediate limitations on Russian actions in Ukraine, he seems to have achieved it,” says Matthew Savill, head of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute.
At their brief press appearance last night, Putin cautioned Ukraine and the Europeans not to disrupt the unspecified progress he and Trump had made. But for Kyiv and its partners, Trump’s actions have undermined the accomplishments of what was hoped to be a successful week of intense diplomacy focused on impacting the outcome in Alaska.
It serves as a reminder of Trump’s tendency to echo the views of the last person he spoke to. For a moment this morning, European leaders may have hoped their efforts had succeeded or were discarded.
As he promised before the summit, Trump contacted Zelensky. The pair spoke for an hour before being joined by European leaders. Zelensky described the call as “long and substantive” and announced plans to travel to Washington on Monday for his first visit since February’s disastrous Oval Office meeting.
Much has happened since, with Kyiv’s European allies working diligently to restore relations and guide Zelensky on effectively interacting with the unpredictable occupant of the White House.
“I am thankful for the invitation,” Zelensky posted, adding, “it is crucial that America’s power influences the situation.” However, following Trump’s statement on Truth Social, Zelensky adopted an urgent tone.
“Killings must stop immediately,” he stated. “The fighting must cease both on the ground and in the air, as well as against our port infrastructure.”
Europe’s “Trump whisperers” resumed their efforts this morning, emphasizing the importance of including Ukraine in discussions about its future while acknowledging Trump’s attempts.
“President Trump’s efforts have brought us closer than ever to ending Russia’s unlawful conflict in Ukraine,” declared Sir Keir Starmer, the UK’s prime minister.
Starmer expressed his approval of the “openness” of the US and Europe to provide “strong security guarantees” for Ukraine in the event of an agreement.
Once the fighting eventually stops, the exact nature of these guarantees will need to be defined in greater detail than has been provided so far.
Despite Europe’s growing role as Ukraine’s main military, economic, and political supporter, it’s recognized that Ukraine’s future security cannot be ensured without the significant backing of the US.
Italy’s leader, Giorgia Meloni, remarked that guarantees for Ukraine could be “inspired by Nato’s Article 5″—the collective defense principle signed by all Nato members.
Several reports suggest the idea of guarantees outside Nato equivalent to Article 5 was discussed during the latest call between Trump and European leaders.
In response to Trump’s apparent shift this morning, there is likely a flurry of activity across European capitals.
In London, the government seems to maintain a positive facade.
“If you can achieve both [a ceasefire and a peace agreement] simultaneously or successively, that’s clearly positive,” a senior Downing Street source said. “But everyone wants to see the fighting end.”
Trump has moved away from the idea of an immediate ceasefire, probably influenced by Putin’s contentious version of past ceasefire failures.
The quasi-summit in Alaska was already a cost-free victory for Putin. It marked the return of an international outcast to the global stage (albeit surrounded by clear displays of American military power at the Elmendorf-Richardson airbase) with elements of a state visit.
The threat of increased US sanctions on Moscow also diminished, with Trump indicating it might be weeks before he has to reconsider.
All of this raises questions about what awaits Zelensky, both in Washington on Monday and when he finally meets with Putin and Trump.
When Fox’s Sean Hannity asked Trump what advice he had for the Ukrainian leader, he replied, “Make a deal. Russia’s a very big power and they’re not.”