Monday’s meeting at the White House could be more crucial to Ukraine’s future and Europe’s security than last Friday’s US-Russia summit in Alaska. The Putin-Trump reunion met expectations with no ceasefire, sanctions, or announcements. Concerns arose about a Ukraine-Europe exclusion from deals between major nuclear powers. However, Ukraine and its allies aim to prevent this.
The presence of leaders like Sir Keir Starmer, President Macron, and Chancellor Merz with President Zelensky in Washington is to ensure he isn’t sidelined in the Oval Office again, as he was on February 28. They want to emphasize to Donald Trump that any Ukraine peace deal must involve Ukraine directly and be backed by solid security guarantees. Europe’s leaders want the US President to recognize their united stance and prevent him from yielding to Vladimir Putin’s demands due to personal rapport.
Sir Keir Starmer’s diplomatic skills will be tested, as Trump listens to him and will visit the UK soon. Trump also favors Mark Rutte, the NATO Secretary-General, while he is less fond of President Macron due to recent criticism over Macron’s intentions at the UN General Assembly. For Ukraine’s peace deal to succeed, concessions are needed. European leaders state that international borders can’t change by force, and President Zelensky insists he won’t cede land, with Ukraine’s constitution forbidding it. Yet, Putin desires the Donbas, already mostly controlled by his forces, and won’t return Crimea.
Former Estonian PM and top diplomat Kaja Kallas noted Ukraine’s victory need not solely be about reclaiming land. If Ukraine can secure strong security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression and ensure its independence, that’s a victory. It seems the US and Russia discussed a proposal trading some Ukrainian land for security guarantees against further Russian demands. However, uncertainties remain.
Could Ukraine concede land for peace? Especially with thousands dying to defend that land? If asked to relinquish the remaining 30% of Donetsk Oblast, does it leave Kyiv vulnerable? Regarding Starmer’s Coalition of the Willing, initial plans for substantial deployment have been reduced to safeguarding skies and seas while rebuilding Ukraine’s army. But even if peace arises, military experts warn of Putin rebuilding his forces to potentially seize more land within a few years. If that occurs, it will take a brave pilot to fire the first missile at an advancing Russian column.